The personal computer (PC) as expected sales, and a flat computer extrusion market, lead to 2011 DRAM offer keep falling, at present the variable cost has bordered on the edge, the past three years 1 times cycle of memory in the doldrums, now the business cycle the cycles of time diminishing, plus the processing technology rapid progress, new DRAM factory is behind the international leaders about 1.5 ~ 2 technology generation,Statistics in the past 10 years of industry investment DRAM companies, in fact there is money really the only Samsung Electronics (Samsung Electronics), the future of ones entering the Samsung rate of evergrande trends are unable to file.
 

   2011 DRAM market is facing serious challenges, although do not have too many new capacity to join DRAM industry, but the single PC demand is the as expected, let DRAM industry was in serious of supply exceeds demand, the 2 Gb DDR3 offer about $1 spot near, the contract price even nearly $1.5, but July and August contract price are all the way bearish, already fairly close to families of manufacturing cost change DRAM, form the great pressure, the season 3 PC boom could heating up, will be the key reason can offer DRAM.
 

  According to the statistics agency, Gartner, 2011 DRAM market value of a negative growth, is expected to reduce 12.4%, 2010 output value is growing 72%, to $39.5 billion scale, is the 1995 $42.2 billion after the second high, and the 2010 and 2011 bits growth rate to 43.7% and 51.8%, respectively.
 

  Looking ahead to 2012 and 2013, WangZheHong analysts said they expected by the end of 2011 the DRAM offer will gradually ease the rise, 2012 years of DRAM market value is expected to restore is growth to 9.4%, is expected to bits growth rate 46.6%, but in the price after heating up, is expected to international companies will return to positive expansion ranks, to start investing in new capacity expansion, plus 30 nm and 20 nanometer process output growth, the expected 2013 bit rate can be as much as 67.9%, market capacity will grow 28.3% negative.
 

  Strange dream of (Qimonda) financial tsunami in 2008, before the global DRAM market still has some 10% market share of rate, after exit, odd dream of DRAM market share of almost all be samsung a rate include, other DRAM factory are not with dew. Observation before 2007, samsung, global DRAM market share of less than 30% rate fundamental, but 2008 years on gradually began to 30%, in 2009 after climbed to 35% in 2010 and even more than 40% of the market share of the rate.

  Samsung global DRAM market in more than 40% of the market share of rate, the past only Intel (Intel) in 1975 ko has it been broken market happened; Even in the 1980 s the most flourishing period of DRAM industry, and that all the Japanese DRAM factory combined market share of rate, also less than now samsung's huge.
 

  The business cycle is past DRAM industry 3 years 1, prolonged, usually boom good, a giant will begin to profit line, after second line factory again slowly turned a profit, at that time at least two line factory and the opportunity to profit, but now boom may be making radical change every year, no rules can be found, determine the business cycle is a short time shrinkage, second line factory no profit opportunities.
 

  Gartner also make an analysis, in 2007 ~ 2009, all global DRAM factory losses of some $18 billion, but the 2009-2011 season 1 so far, DRAM factory and make up the business cycle benefit from the amount of back, about $14 billion, with samsung was a loss of $1 per later earn $7.73, Hynix has (Hynix) earn $1.97, er will reach (Elpida), beauty of light (Micron), force jing, China and Asia, South Asia, companies such as families, were not the 2007 ~ 2009 from the money back pay, total in the past 10 years, the investment DRAM industry is also the only in a samsung make money, the other is losing money.
 

  The next two line DRAM factory must master the opportunity to make money, may have to wait until technology process miniature arrived at the bottleneck, and also is 20 nano process after the following, if cannot continue to go on, a factory have a chance to close with the international leaders of between technology and cost structure distance, but also the international leaders also invest in research and development next generation memory such as PCM, FRAM, MRAM, etc. Although there has been a next generation memory can be called the mainstream, but still need to closely observe.